Right, first of all, a confession… I’ve never really taken much of an interest in politics which is clearly shown in the title to this blog (“What the hell is a quango?” was a question I was asking myself every time David Cameron mentioned “quangos” last night. In the end, I Googled it). But, after hearing that there were to be Three “American style” Live television debates, I decided that I’d settle down to watch to see if I could gain some sort of understanding about the upcoming Election. And the results were… Well it was all a little boring for me. Perhaps with the next debate being on SKY, they can show it in 3D and perhaps use some of SKY Sports’ slow motion replays to jazz it up?
Anyway, I’m not going to bang on about or try to force my political views upon you as there are probably hundreds of blogs that are doing that today. Instead, I thought I’d take a look at how this live debate effected the betting markets that are currently live surrounding the election.
First of all, there were some interesting markets available on the first live debate itself including:
Who would win – Cameron 11/8, Clegg 2/1 & Brown 10/3
Any leader to quote the latest election prices at 16/1
Any leader to do an impression of another leader at 16/1
Any leader to walk off during the debate at 33/1
But as I said, I wanted to see how the live debates effected the overall win market for the Election. I checked out the prices for the Election before the debate started… Or as of 4pm yesterday! No surprise to see that Conservatives were favourites with most bookies. In fact, the best odds you could get on David Cameron being able to redecorate Number 10 come the weekend of May 8th was 1/7 (with Bodog amongst others!) Next were Labour with 5/1 (available at Sportingbet) with the Lib Dems the rank outsider at odds of 200/1. But after a strong showing by Nick Clegg (not necessarily my view, just the result that the majority of opinion polls have come too) the odds of a Liberal Democrats victory next month were slashed to as short as 40/1 with some bookies (If you do fancy a flutter on Nick Clegg though, you can still get 66/1). The odds on Labour were slightly shortened to 11/2 whilst the Conservatives are still at 1/7.
In the end, it’s pretty conclusive that the Live Debates do have an effect on the betting markets but will it really be enough for people to change their decision on who they vote for? I suppose we’ll have to wait until May 7th for the answer to that but until then, I’m off to email the producers of SKY News with my ideas for next week’s debate. Don’t forget your 3D specs next Thursday night!